Canada's round 9 opponents at the Chess Olympiad: how Turkmenistan and the USA play

Short answer

In round 9 of the 46th Chess Olympiad, contested on 25 September 2026 in Samarkand, Canada face Turkmenistan in the open section (board 26) and the United States in the women's section (board 9). This analytical dossier examines 791 over-the-board classical games broadcast over the past three years, detailing each opposing player's chess opening repertoire, the tactical lines scoring critically below individual baselines, phase-by-phase engine precision metrics, and competitive profiles from online platforms. Every statistical metric is presented alongside its sample size to ensure rigorous technical evaluation of preparation and tournament form.

Event: 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad

How this was compiled: Checked on 24 September 2026, with round 8 finished and round 9 still to be played: it starts on 25 September at 3 pm Samarkand time (10:00 UTC). The pairings, the standings and the individual Olympiad scores were checked on chess-results. The official PGN with the line-ups only appears when the round starts, so this dossier covers both opponents' full squads rather than the four boards. The repertoire uses the 791 over-the-board classical games from the last three years broadcast on Lichess, matched to each player by FIDE ID: 398 from the Turkmen squad and 393 from the American one. The error profile measures each player's 12 most recent games with Stockfish 19 at depth 16 (11 in Halynyazov's case). Every move quoted in the text was re-measured at depth 24, with a dedicated search and a cleared hash. The online repertoire comes from verified Chess.com accounts over a 90-day window and mixes blitz and bullet; correspondence games are left out.

The essentials in a few lines

• In round 9, on 25 September 2026, Canada face Turkmenistan in the open section (board 26) and the United States in the women's section (board 9). In the open contest, both teams are tied on 10 match points, with Canada holding a 103-point rating advantage. In the women's tournament, the USA possess a 230-point rating superiority, though Canada stand higher in the current tournament standings. As official board pairings are finalized only prior to clock start, the dossier covers all ten nominated athletes.
• The clearest structural vulnerability in the Turkmen squad lies with top board Saparmyrat Atabayev: playing Black against 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 in the opening moves, he scored 37.5% across 16 classical games, conceding eight defeats. Conversely, facing 1.e4 in the chess opening, Atabayev demonstrates resilient preparation, scoring 63.0% over 27 encounters.
• Amanmuhammet Hommadov records an average loss of 29 centipawns per move, the highest in the Turkmen squad, though this metric is distorted: in rounds 1, 3 and 4 of the Olympiad, he bypassed forced mate sequences in 9, 5 and 8 moves, converting all three games while engine evaluation penalized the pragmatic detour as serious inaccuracies.
• Carissa Yip, leading the American squad, scored 44.2% with White over 26 classical games, opting for 1.e4 as her opening move in 25 encounters, whilst suffering a critical 22.2% score in 9 games against the Sicilian Defence, suffering six defeats. In the ongoing Olympiad, Yip holds 5 points from 7 rounds, having survived a dramatic tactical oversight in round 4 when her queen was left en prise for a move before converting the win.
• Irina Krush faltered in round 8 in the decisive rubber sealing the United States' 1.5-2.5 loss to Armenia: facing severe time trouble (zeitnot) with 44 seconds remaining on move 40, she played 40...Qxa6, which caused the evaluation to swing from 0.00 to +9.14 in White's favour prior to the time control.

The round 9 picture

In the open section, Canada hold the rating edge yet enter the round lower in the tournament standings. Both squads possess 10 match points: Turkmenistan occupy 41st position with 20.5 game points, while Canada stand 52nd with 20.0. The Canadian average rating reaches 2486, compared to 2383 for the Turkmen team. Turkmenistan's campaign includes losses to Serbia (1-3) and Bulgaria (0.5-3.5), draws against Slovakia and Austria, and an emphatic 3.5-0.5 win over Denmark in round 6. Canada conceded defeats against Serbia (1.5-2.5), Spain (0.5-3.5), and Turkey (1.5-2.5) in round 8.

In the women's section, the tournament table diverges significantly from pre-event seeding. The United States entered as fifth seeds with a 2415 average rating, whilst Canada were seeded 38th with 2185. Despite the theoretical disparity, Canada hold 15th place with 12 match points and 23.0 game points, whereas the Americans sit 18th with 11 match points and 22.5 game points. The American women suffered setbacks against India (1-3) and Armenia (1.5-2.5) in round 8, alongside a drawn match against Uzbekistan.

The statistical table below summarises the sample sizes recorded for each player. The Turkmen squad accounts for 398 classical games, compared to 393 for the American line-up. The most extensive databases belong to Meylis Annaberdiyev (152 games) and Rose Atwell (143 games). The most compact sample belongs to Shahruh Turayev, with 22 games (12 with White and 10 with Black), warranting analytical discretion due to limited data. No nominated player falls below the 10-game threshold designating low-confidence samples.

In the ongoing Olympiad, Turkmenistan's standout performer is Annaberdiyev, recording 4.5 points from 7 games for a 2549 tournament performance rating, 165 points above his published rating. Atabayev and Hommadov have each scored 4.5 from 8, Turayev holds 4 from 6, and reserve Halynyazov boasts a flawless 3 from 3. For the United States, Alice Lee leads with 6 from 7 and a 2586 performance rating. Yip has collected 5 from 7, Abrahamyan 5 from 6, Atwell 3.5 from 6, while Krush stands on 3 from 6 with a 2204 performance rating, 189 points below her official mark.

Turkmenistan: 1.d4 against Atabayev, and Hommadov's Black games

Top board Atabayev provides the firmest baseline in the squad. With White, he chooses 1.e4 as his opening move in 46 of his 62 games, scoring 68.5%; his lowest return comes against the Sicilian Defence with 2.Nf3 d6 at 59.4% across 16 games (high confidence). Against 1...e5 his score rises to 71.9% in 16 encounters, and with 1.d4 he achieved 81.8% in 11 games without defeat. With Black, his opening choices yield contrasting results: against 1.e4 he scores 63.0% in 27 games, featuring 69.2% in the Sicilian and 53.8% in open games after 1...e5. Against 1.d4 his efficiency drops to 47.6% in 21 games, falling to a critical 37.5% in 16 encounters when entering the 1...Nf6 2.c4 e6 complex, with four wins, four draws and eight losses.

Annaberdiyev possesses the largest database in the contest with 152 games, reflecting a versatile and polished chess opening repertoire. With White, he divides his preparation between 1.e4 (59.2% over 38 games), 1.d4 (68.2% across 22) and 1.Nf3 (76.9% in 13 undefeated encounters). With Black against 1.e4, he employs the Sicilian Defence in 30 of 44 games, scoring 63.3%; the dossier identifies that in the Open Sicilian with 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 his return sits at 50.0% in 10 games (moderate confidence). Against 1.d4 he achieves greater resilience, scoring 66.7% in 21 games, establishing himself as the team's in-form competitor, evidenced by a 2549 performance rating in Samarkand.

Hommadov, on board three, records the lowest return when conducting the black pieces: 37.1% over 31 games. Against 1.d4 he scored 42.3% in 13 encounters, which narrows to 20.0% in 5 games within 1...Nf6 2.c4 e6. Against 1.e4 he collected only 36.4% across 11 games, managing a solitary win, six draws and four defeats. With White, he plays 1.e4 as his opening move in 22 of 33 games, winning 5 of 6 Sicilian contests; however, against 1...e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 he scored 37.5% in 8 games (moderate confidence) and lost all three Caro-Kann Defences in the sample. A technical caveat is necessary: his median rating across the historical sample was 2262 Elo compared to his current 2389, indicating that many losses occurred during earlier competitive phases.

Turayev has 22 games on record, presenting a modest sample for strategic deductions. With White, he selected 1.d4 in 8 games without defeat, alongside 1.c4 in 4. With Black, he scored 40.0% in 10 games, answering 1.d4 invariably with 1...d5 (60.0% across 5 games), whilst suffering defeat in both games against the 1.Nf3 chess opening. Halynyazov, the reserve, opts for 1.d4 as his opening move in all 17 games with White, scoring 61.8%. With Black against 1.e4, he defends with the French Defence in 13 of 14 games, registering 38.5% (two wins, six draws and five losses). Halynyazov's median rating in the sample was 2157 Elo, one hundred points below his present standard, and he has reached a perfect 3 from 3 in Samarkand.

USA: Lee hardly loses with White, and Yip struggles against the Sicilian

Carissa Yip leads the American squad and presents the most polarised statistical profile in the sample. With White, she scored 44.2% across 26 games, playing 1.e4 as her opening move in 25 of them. Against classical 1...e5 she shows authority, scoring 68.8% in 8 games. Against the Sicilian Defence, however, her score plummets to 22.2% in 9 games, with one win, two draws and six defeats; with 2.Nf3 d6, she recorded 25.0% in 4 games, matching the 25.0% in 4 games against the Caro-Kann Defence. With Black she exhibits remarkable resourcefulness: 62.0% across 25 games, including 72.2% against 1.e4. Her primary difficulty with Black arises against 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6, scoring 41.7% in 6 games under moderate confidence.

Alice Lee is the in-form American competitor with 6 from 7 in the Olympiad, displaying exemplary solidity with White: 67.0% across 47 games. She opens with 1.d4 in 32 games (71.9%, conceding only two defeats) and with 1.Nf3 in 13 games, collecting two wins and eleven draws without loss. With Black, she registers 51.2% in 42 games. Against 1.e4 she divides her responses between 1...e5 and the Sicilian Defence; her critical vulnerability occurs in the Petroff Defence (1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6), where she scores 31.3% in 8 games without a victory, collecting five draws and three losses. In the Sicilian she posts 50.0% across 12 games, identical to her 50.0% return in 9 games against 1.d4.

Grandmaster Irina Krush offers the greatest versatility with White: 1.d4 in 11 games (54.5%), 1.Nf3 in 10 (70.0%), and the English Opening 1.c4 in 8 games (87.5%). With Black against 1.e4, she adopts the Sicilian Defence in 15 of 16 encounters, scoring 71.9% overall, but declines to 53.3% across 15 games against 1.d4. While her extensive pedigree commands respect, her current tournament form has proven difficult: she holds 3 from 6 in Samarkand with a 2204 performance rating, having lost in rounds 6 and 8, the two matches in which the United States were defeated.

Tatev Abrahamyan relies on clearly defined conceptual structures. With White, she deployed 1.e4 in all 27 recorded games, scoring 66.7%, alongside an impressive 77.3% across 11 games against the Sicilian; her vulnerability appears against the French Defence, where she managed 37.5% in 4 games. With Black against 1.e4, she relied on the French Defence in all 10 sample games, maintaining 70.0% without defeat, but against 1.d4 her return drops to 41.7% in 6 games. Rose Atwell holds the second-largest database in the match with 143 games, scoring 49.3% with White and 47.8% with Black. Against her White pieces, the classical line 1...e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 yielded 37.5% in 8 games; with Black, the French Defence serves as her primary asset (67.6% across 17 games), whereas 1...Nf6 against 1.d4 remains her most vulnerable line (28.6% in 7 games without a win).

Where the engine finds the errors

The comparative table details average evaluation loss per move across each phase, with audited moves shown in brackets. In the chess opening phase, all ten athletes maintain disciplined theoretical preparation, conceding between 4 and 8 centipawns. In the tactical middlegame, the Turkmen squad ranges between 21 (Annaberdiyev) and 36 centipawns (Turayev), whilst American players fluctuate between 15 (Lee) and 28 centipawns (Krush and Abrahamyan). Alice Lee sets the benchmark of the match with an overall average of 10 centipawns per move, conceding a mere 6 centipawns in endgame technique.

Hommadov's figures of 33 centipawns in the middlegame and 45 in the endgame require careful Grandmaster context. In round 1, facing Andrade Pinto (Timor-Leste), he possessed a forced mate in 9 moves and played 38.Be3 with 34 minutes on the clock; the evaluation remained at +8.17 and he won convincingly. In round 3, against Hamid Jamal (Mozambique), he possessed mate in 5 with 30.Rxh7+ and elected 30.Rh1 with 14 minutes left; the position remained at +10.58 and he secured victory. In round 4, against Mohamed Abdelazeez (Sudan), he bypassed mate in 8 with 47...Bxd6, maintaining a decisive −7.12 advantage before converting. The engine penalises the choice between a mating sequence and an eight-pawn material advantage as a serious error, which artificially inflates statistical loss: choosing a longer, pragmatic route to victory is not a strategic failing.

Turayev has 12 serious middlegame errors recorded, the highest tally in the match, though a notable portion is attributable to a recording artefact. His round 1 game against de Carvalho (Timor-Leste) ceased on move 13 in the official broadcast, displaying an undefended white bishop on c4 that Black left en prise for three successive moves (11...c5, 12...Rc8 and 13...Bb8), despite having over ninety minutes on the clock. This bears the hallmark of a transcription error on the broadcast relay, heavily distorting his statistical average.

The consequential errors in the Turkmen squad are qualitative, demonstrating a team that achieves superior positions but struggles with conversion technique. In round 4, against Omar Eltigani (Sudan), Atabayev held a commanding −6.00 advantage and played 28...e3 with 28 minutes on the clock, whereas the tactical thrust 28...exf3 retained full control; the evaluation retreated to −0.22 and the game concluded in a draw. In round 2, facing Serbian GM Alexey Sarana, Atabayev played 26...Qxf4 with 37 minutes, when the defensive manoeuvre 26...Rb8 restricted White's advantage to +2.35; the move played permitted +5.52, followed by 27.Nxb5 axb5 28.Qxb4, leading to defeat. Annaberdiyev, in the same round, held a +6.98 winning advantage against Alexandr Predke and played 46.Nc5 with 5 minutes and 17 seconds remaining, when 46.gxh6 retained decisive control; the evaluation receded to +1.69 and the game ended in a draw.

The USA on the clock, and the queen nobody took

In round 8, against Armenian GM Elina Danielian, Krush reached move 40 with 51 seconds remaining in a balanced position. With 44 seconds left on her clock, she played 40...Qxa6 in extreme zeitnot, when the prophylactic 40...Ra2 maintained level terms (0.00); the evaluation swung to +9.14 in White's favour. Although the time control brought 30 additional minutes, the position had already become indefensible. As the remaining three boards finished level, this isolated defeat sealed Armenia's 2.5-1.5 victory.

Atwell faltered in the match against India under no clock pressure. Against Savitha Shri B, with 20 minutes and 55 seconds in reserve, she committed 21.Nd2, when placing the bishop via 21.Bc3 held Black's initiative to a manageable −0.28; the move allowed the evaluation to plunge to −6.80, followed by 21...Bxd5 22.exd5 Rxb2, leaving White without counterplay.

Carissa Yip produced the most bizarre episode of the event. In round 4, facing Marta Garcia Martin (Spain) with 48 minutes on her clock, she played 24...a4, leaving her queen on b4 vulnerable to capture by a pawn: 25.axb4 would have elevated the evaluation from a level +0.27 to +9.08. Garcia Martin, holding 18 minutes, overlooked the tactical gift with 25.Rf1, allowing Yip to regroup and claim the full point. In round 7, against former World Champion Alexandra Kosteniuk (Switzerland), Yip held a +4.97 advantage and played the hasty 24.e6 with 15 minutes left, when 24.a5 preserved dominance; the position equalised at 0.00, though Yip later prevailed in the endgame. In round 5, against Afruza Khamdamova (Uzbekistan), she played 20.Qe3 with 28 minutes, when 20.cxb5 contained the damage to −2.99, precipitating a drop to −5.60 and eventual defeat.

Lee showcases the most disciplined metrics in the match, yet her play exhibits occasional conversion hesitation where decisive advantages slip into draws. In round 8, against Armenia's Mariam Mkrtchyan, Lee held a +3.18 advantage and played 22.Nd4 with 30 minutes, when the energetic 22.d7 maintained full dominance; the evaluation dropped to +0.47 and the contest concluded in a draw on move 110. At the 2026 Cairns Cup against former World Champion Tan Zhongyi, she encountered this same conversion hurdle twice in a single encounter: 25.Qd3 with 33 minutes (reducing +3.97 to +1.16, when 25.Qc3 was best) and 41.a3 with 27 minutes (allowing +2.07 to diminish to +0.19, with 41.Nf6+ being optimal), settling for a draw in both instances.

Abrahamyan's 38 centipawns in the endgame phase likewise incorporate an algorithmic artefact. In round 1, against Ariadna De la Riva Real (Andorra), she converted a technical bishop-and-pawns versus knight endgame in severe zeitnot; the move penalised by shallow engine search, 90.Bb7 executed with 43 seconds left, proved to be the optimal move in the position when re-evaluated at depth 24. Her other noticeable statistical variance, at the 2026 SKG Open against Jennifer Yu, occurred in a position where the outcome was already settled.

What the online accounts show, and what they do not

This analytical section is deliberately segregated on methodological grounds. Blitz and bullet encounters belong to a different competitive domain: rapid clock controls encourage intuitive, experimental opening choices, and rapid decisions made with one to three minutes on the clock cannot reflect deep classical tournament preparation. Online archives highlight a player's intuitive familiarity and structural comfort zones, rather than the specific chess opening repertoire prepared for classical Olympic warfare.

Hommadov (amanmuhammethommadov) has contested 300 blitz games, recording 54% with White and 47% with Black, while opting for 1.e4 in 70 of 151 White encounters. His primary online vulnerability appears in the Sicilian Defence after 2.Nf3 d6 3.c3, scoring 40.5% across 21 games (high confidence), the exact chess opening in which he prevails in over-the-board classical chess. Halynyazov (kimkibo) registers 126 games with a 46% return across both colours; his online practice inverts his classical tendencies, deploying 1.e4 as his opening move in 30 of 62 White games, compared to his strict classical preference for 1.d4, whilst with Black the Caro-Kann Defence features with 16.7% in 6 games in lieu of the French Defence.

Lee (powerofapoint) played 300 games, including 239 bullet encounters, scoring 59% with White and 49% with Black. Online she adopts 1.d4 as her opening move in 53 of 151 games with White, with her most vulnerable line emerging in 1.Nf3 c6 2.g3 d5, yielding 38.9% across 18 games (high confidence). Atwell (roseatwell) holds 299 games, 168 in bullet, scoring 52% with White and 56% with Black. Online, she plays 1.e4 in 68 of 147 White games; with Black, the Petroff Defence features with 40.0% in 10 games after 3.d4, alongside 40.9% across 11 games in 1.d4 d5 2.Nf3 Nf6.

The verified accounts of Atabayev (atabayevsaparmyrat) and Turayev (turayev_shahruh17) remain authentic, though neither has recorded activity within the past 90 days. Abrahamyan (axvesik) has logged 15 games, Yip (magician4ma) 10 and Krush (irochka83) just 2, representing insufficient data for strategic conclusions. Annaberdiyev has no verified profile; our dossier strictly excludes unverified accounts that cannot be cross-referenced against FIDE credentials, titles and national federations.

What to watch in round 9

In the open tournament, conducting the white pieces, the most dependable tactical target is confronting Atabayev within 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 in the opening moves, a setup where the Turkmen grandmaster manages only 37.5% in 16 games (high confidence), contrasted with his resilient 63.0% across 27 games against 1.e4. Against Hommadov, both opening systems expose vulnerabilities, yielding 42.3% in 13 games against 1.d4 and 36.4% in 11 against 1.e4. Facing Halynyazov, 1.e4 leads to the French Defence, where he has achieved 38.5% in 13 games. Against Annaberdiyev, the squad's most balanced anchor, 1.e4 has brought him 60.2% over 44 games and 1.d4 66.7% across 21.

When conducting the black pieces, confronting Atabayev's opening move with the Sicilian Defence via 2...d6 represents the soundest course, restricting him to 59.4% in 16 games, well below his 71.9% return against 1...e5. Against Hommadov, open systems with 1...e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 held him to 37.5% in 8 games, whereas the Sicilian Defence is his strongest White weapon. Furthermore, engine evidence confirms that both Atabayev and Annaberdiyev have failed to convert technically winning positions during this Olympiad: sustaining stubborn defensive resistance in inferior positions can salvage crucial half-points against the rating odds.

In the women's contest, although the United States carry a 230-point rating advantage, they face mounting tournament pressure alongside Krush's recent struggles. Handling Black against Yip, the strategic evidence is emphatic: the Sicilian Defence restricted her to 22.2% across 9 games and the Caro-Kann Defence yielded 25.0% in 4, compared to her 68.8% return against 1...e5. Facing Abrahamyan, the French Defence marks her principal vulnerability with White, yielding 37.5% in 4 games. Against Atwell, classical 1...e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 held her to 37.5% across 8 games.

With White against Lee, playing 1.e4 introduces the Petroff Defence, in which the American star has scored 31.3% across 8 games without recording a victory. Handling White against Yip, employing 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 in the opening moves restricted her to 41.7% in 6 games; against Abrahamyan and Atwell, 1.d4 likewise limits their counterplay, yielding 41.7% in 6 and 28.6% in 7 games after 1...Nf6. Against Krush, who answers almost every 1.e4 with the Sicilian Defence, 1.d4 stands as the opening move where her scoring rate is most subdued (53.3% across 15 games). Once official team line-ups are announced prior to the round, this article's interactive dossier components will update automatically to feature the four contested boards.

Frequently asked questions

Update log

• 2026-09-24 — First published, with the round 9 pairings checked on chess-results and the round still to be played: repertoire from 791 classical games broadcast on Lichess, error profile with Stockfish 19 at depth 16 and online repertoire from verified accounts. The dossiers cover both opponents' full squads; once the line-up is out, the same file will show the four boards and the round's game.
• 2026-09-29 — The Olympiad ended on 27 September: Uzbekistan won the open and China the women's event. This coverage is no longer updated; the final result is in the standings story.

Sources

• 46th Chess Olympiad Samarkand 2026, Open: round 9 pairings — Chess-Results
• 46th Chess Olympiad Samarkand 2026, Women: round 9 pairings — Chess-Results
• Alexey Sarana v Saparmyrat Atabayev, round 2: broadcast game — Lichess
• Amanmuhammet Hommadov v Hamid Jamal, round 3: broadcast game — Lichess
• Elina Danielian v Irina Krush, round 8: broadcast game — Lichess
• Marta Garcia Martin v Carissa Yip, round 4: broadcast game — Lichess
• Amanmuhammet Hommadov (amanmuhammethommadov): titled profile confirming the account used in the online repertoire — Chess.com

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