USA's round 8 opponents at the Olympiad: how Serbia and Armenia play

Short answer

In round 8 of the 46th Chess Olympiad, on 24 September 2026, the USA meet Serbia in the open section, on table 4, and Armenia in the women's section, on table 5. Drawing upon 964 classical games broadcast on Lichess over the past three years, this article examines the opening repertoire of each squad, the specific variations in which opponents score below their historical averages, the phases in which the engine identifies significant inaccuracies, and the supplementary insights provided by online games — accompanied throughout by sample sizes to ensure statistical rigor.

Event: 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad

How this was compiled: Researched on 23 September 2026, with round 7 finished and round 8 still to be played: it starts on 24 September at 3 pm Samarkand time (10:00 UTC). The pairings were checked on chess-results. The official PGN with each team's line-up only comes out when the round starts, so this dossier covers both opponents' full squads rather than just the four boards. The repertoire uses the 964 classical over-the-board games from the last three years broadcast on Lichess and linked to each player by FIDE ID: 551 from the Serbian squad and 413 from the Armenian. The error profile measures each player's 12 most recent games with Stockfish 19 at depth 16. Every move quoted in the text was re-measured at depth 24, with a dedicated search and a clean hash, and endgames of up to seven pieces were checked in the Lichess tablebase. The blitz and rapid repertoire comes from verified Chess.com accounts, over a 90-day window.

The essentials in a few lines

• In round 8, on 24 September 2026, the USA face Serbia in the open section (table 4) and Armenia in the women's section (table 5). In the open, both teams enter with 11 match points; in the women's section, Armenia lead with 12 points, one ahead of the USA. The USA hold the top seed in both encounters. Because team line-ups are confirmed only in the official PGN at the start of the round, this dossier covers all ten players across both squads.
• The Serbian team are distinguished by high positional discipline: over each player's 12 most recent games, the five Serbians lose between 15 and 20 centipawns per move in the middlegame, compared to 29 to 44 among the Armenians. Match points dropped by Serbia in Samarkand stemmed from significant uncoverted advantages: Ivic drew after reaching +5.43 in round 1, and Predke drew after attaining +5.32 in round 4.
• Conducing the Black pieces, Aleksandar Indjic scores 38.5% in 13 games against 1.d4 and 55.6% in 18 against 1.e4. Alexandr Predke achieved 25.0% in 6 games with the French Defence without recording a victory. Bojan Maksimovic, who also adopts the French, scored 41.7% in 12 games, recording 10 draws and 2 losses.
• Facing 1.e4, Susanna Gaboyan scores 36.1% in 18 games, and 40.6% across 16 games with the Sicilian Defence. Elina Danielian does not play the Alekhine Defence in classical chess but adopts it online: in the line 1.e4 Nf6 2.e5 Nd5 3.d4 d6 4.c4, she scored 10.7% in 14 blitz games, classified as a high-confidence indicator.
• In round 4, against Kazakhstan, Lilit Mkrtchian held an evaluation of +4.28 against Bibisara Assaubayeva when she played 34.Rd2, after which dedicated re-measurement indicates −13.23. Armenia were defeated in that match 1–3, their solitary loss of the tournament.

The round 8 picture

The United States enter the eighth round following a 2–2 draw with Armenia in the open section and a 3–1 victory over Switzerland in the women's section. In the open standings, the USA and Serbia both possess 11 match points, with Serbia holding a narrow lead in individual game points (18.5 to 18). In the women's competition, Armenia lead with 12 match points against 11 for the USA, though the Americans hold the tiebreak advantage on game points, 21 to 20.

Based on initial tournament rankings, the USA are theoretical favourites in both matches: they are seeded 1st in the open section (facing the 15th seeds) and 5th in the women's section (facing the 16th). The tournament standings, however, illustrate close parity. Serbia have suffered defeat only against China (1–3) and defeated Canada 2.5–1.5 in round 3 — a match in which Alexey Sarana was defeated by Shawn Rodrigue-Lemieux. Armenia have lost only to Kazakhstan (1–3) and defeated Azerbaijan 2.5–1.5 in round 7. The USA have conceded one defeat in each section: to Germany in the open (1.5–2.5) and to India in the women's event (1–3).

The sample sizes recorded in the table below establish the empirical basis for each tactical deduction, with both squads extensively represented. The Serbian dataset comprises 551 classical games, while the Armenian sample includes 413. Alexandr Predke accounts for the largest individual sample across both matches (151 games), followed closely by Velimir Ivic with 138. Anahit Mkrtchyan, born in 2009, is the only player below 50 games (38 games, with 19 of each colour) — a sample adequate to trace broad repertoire tendencies, though insufficient for granular tactical conclusions.

In round 7, Serbia deployed Sarana, Indjic, Ivic, and Predke, resting Maksimovic; Armenia fielded Mariam Mkrtchyan, Danielian, Gaboyan, and Lilit Mkrtchian, resting Anahit. Mariam Mkrtchyan stands out as the only competitor among the ten to have contested all seven rounds, accumulating an impressive 6 points: five victories and two draws, against Alua Nurman and Govhar Beydullayeva. Squad rotation remains standard protocol in Olympiad competition, explaining why the dossier analyses all five squad members on each side.

Serbia: solid White results and specific vulnerabilities with Black

Alexey Sarana is Serbia's highest-rated player at 2666, with 67 games in the sample. With White, he scored an exceptional 75.8% in 31 games (17 wins, 13 draws, and a solitary defeat), albeit against opponents averaging 2529, roughly 140 points below him. He opened with 1.d4 in 26 of those 31 games, achieving 75.0% without defeat. The variation where he encounters the greatest resistance is 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3, yielding 65.0% in 10 games. With Black, he maintains 59.7% in 36 games, meeting 1.e4 with the Sicilian in 17 of 22 instances; in the Open Sicilian (1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4), his score drops to 44.4% across 9 games (2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses). Against 1.d4 he chooses 1...Nf6, scoring 68.8% in 8 games. In Samarkand, he drew with Ding Liren (rated 2733) in round 4.

Aleksandar Indjic exhibits the most pronounced statistical contrast in the Serbian squad. With White, he achieves 69.0% in 42 games; with Black, he declines to 48.7% in 38 games against opposition averaging 2506 — approximately 120 points below his sample average of 2625. This variation correlates directly with the opponent's first move: against 1.e4, he scores 55.6% in 18 games; against 1.d4, he drops to 38.5% in 13 games (2 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses), a variation designated as high confidence by the dossier. Following 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6, he recorded 33.3% in 6 games. In the current Olympiad, Indjic has scored 4.5 points from 6 games, suffering his only defeat against Wei Yi (rated 2752) in round 4.

Alexandr Predke accounts for the largest sample in either match, with 151 games, and presents the most vulnerable record when playing Black. Overall with Black he scores 53.2% in 77 games; against the French Defence (1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5), however, he managed only 25.0% in 6 games, with 3 draws and 3 losses. Against 1.d4 his performance fluctuates substantially by defence: with 1...Nf6 he achieves 69.4% in 18 games, but with 1...d5 he falls to 36.4% in 11 games, and to 37.5% in 8 after 2.c4 e6. With White, he scores 62.8% in 74 games, dropping to 44.1% in 17 encounters against 1...e5. In Samarkand he holds 4.5 points from 6 games, including a draw with Yu Yangyi (2710) in round 4.

Velimir Ivic is the designated 1.e4 specialist on the Serbian squad, selecting the move in 44 of his 69 White games and scoring 65.9%. His most frequent setup, 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6, yielded 57.7% in 26 games — below his overall White average of 68.1%, with a high-confidence classification in the dossier. With Black, he scores 55.8% in 69 games, meeting 1.e4 with the Sicilian in 27 of 38 encounters (57.4%); when choosing 1...e5, he manages 44.4% in 9 games, recording 52.9% in 17 games against 1.d4. He has experienced the most subdued tournament among Serbian starters in Samarkand, with 3 points from 6 games, drawing in round 1 with Gong Thon Gong of South Sudan (2159) and losing in round 6 to Edvin Trost of Sweden.

Bojan Maksimovic is the fifth player on the roster at 2534, having been rested in round 7. With White, he posts an impressive 76.7% in 58 games, choosing 1.c4 in 38 of them against opponents averaging 2395 (roughly 125 points below him). With Black, he records 53.5% in 57 games, with the French Defence illustrating a persistent vulnerability across the Serbian squad: in 12 games with the opening, he scored 41.7%, with 10 draws and 2 losses. Combined with Predke's results, that represents 18 games in the French Defence by Serbian Grandmasters without a single victory.

Armenia: consistency on top boards and vulnerabilities with Black

Elina Danielian leads the Armenian women's squad by rating at 2382, with 98 games in the database. She scores 68.4% with White and 60.2% with Black across exactly 49 games with each colour, against opponents averaging between 115 and 150 points below her. She opened 1.d4 in 40 of her 49 White games, achieving a 70.0% score. In her most frequent setup, 1.d4 d5 2.c4 e6, her score settles at 54.2% in 12 games — a line flagged as high confidence. With Black, she met 1.e4 with 1...d6 in 12 games (58.3%) and with the French in 9 (44.4%), scoring 59.4% in 16 encounters against 1.d4. At this Olympiad, she holds 4.5 points from 6 games.

Mariam Mkrtchyan is the most consistent player on the Armenian roster. With White, she scores 63.6% in 55 games, choosing 1.d4 in 45; after 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6, her performance settles at 50.0% in 15 games, also classified as high confidence. With Black, she achieves 58.8% in 57 games: against 1.e4, she plays 1...e5 in 20 of 30 games, scoring 57.5%; against 1.d4, she replied 1...d5 in all 20 games and likewise recorded 57.5%. Her repertoire is disciplined and compact, with none of her primary lines falling below 50% — reliability substantiated by her 6 points in 7 rounds in Samarkand.

Lilit Mkrtchian, born in 1982, displays the most varied White repertoire in the match: she selected 1.Nf3 in 23 games (60.9%), 1.c4 in 13 (73.1%), and 1.d4 in 11 (86.4%). Following 1.Nf3 Nf6, her score stands at 50.0% in 14 games. Conducing Black, she records 54.5% in 44 games, choosing the Caro-Kann in 14 encounters (60.7%) and the French in 10 (55.0%). Her games are characterised by strategic depth and duration: the median reaches 75 plies, and 41.3% extend beyond move 40. At this Olympiad, she has recorded 4.5 points from 6 games, with her sole defeat coming against GM Bibisara Assaubayeva of Kazakhstan (2536) in round 4.

The two youngest members of the squad experience the sharpest drops in performance when playing Black. Susanna Gaboyan scores 69.4% with White in 36 games, but falls to 43.2% with Black across 37 games against opponents of comparable strength. Against 1.e4, she scores 36.1% in 18 games, managing 40.6% across 16 outings in the Sicilian; against 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4, she scored 25.0% in 6 games. In Samarkand, she won her first three games before suffering defeats in rounds 4, 6, and 7. Anahit Mkrtchyan selected 1.e4 in all 19 of her White games (71.1%), but managed 42.1% in 19 games with Black. In this tournament, she has contested three games, scoring 2 points.

Where the engine finds the errors

The table below details the average evaluation loss per move across each phase of play, alongside the volume of moves analysed. In the opening, all ten players remain tightly clustered between 4 and 10 centipawns. The middlegame separates the teams technically: Serbia range between 15 (Sarana and Predke) and 20 (Ivic), while Armenia span from 29 (Danielian) to 44 (Anahit Mkrtchyan). In the endgame, the Serbians maintain averages between 11 and 22 centipawns, while the Armenians range from 9 (Danielian) to 45 (Mariam Mkrtchyan) — with the caveat that Mariam's average is skewed by two positions clarified by tablebase analysis, as detailed below.

The errors committed by Serbian starters that impacted the scoreboard in Samarkand share a consistent pattern: substantial advantages surrendered as the struggle progressed. In round 1, Velimir Ivic held +5.43 against Gong Thon Gong (2159) when he played 47...Qf4, a move that dedicated re-measurement levels at 0.00, resulting in a draw. In round 4, Alexandr Predke held +5.32 against Yu Yangyi before playing 34.Qd3, which reduced his advantage to +1.52; on move 49, holding +2.52, he played 49.Rg7+, an inaccuracy evaluated at +0.07 that sealed another draw. In round 5, Aleksandar Indjic held +3.74 against Jorge Roberto Elias Reyes of Cuba (2505), playing 51...Kf6 and seeing his edge dwindle to +1.19 prior to agreeing a draw.

Two Serbian defeats stemmed from distinct tactical errors. In round 3, against Canada, Alexey Sarana held +3.23 against Shawn Rodrigue-Lemieux when he played 20...Qc4, bringing his advantage down to +0.04; on move 38, in an equal position at −0.09, he committed 38...h6, after which the evaluation plummeted to −3.59, resulting in defeat. In round 6, against Sweden, Ivic was level against Edvin Trost (2472) when he played 30.Nxa5, dropping to −6.37 and losing the game. In the same match, Predke played 33...Be5 against Erik Blomqvist (2482), shifting the evaluation from −0.21 to −5.07; the opponent failed to convert, and the contest concluded in a draw.

The single most costly move in the entire dataset belongs to Lilit Mkrtchian in round 4 against Bibisara Assaubayeva. Conducting the White pieces with an evaluation of +4.28, she played 34.Rd2, after which re-measurement at depth 24 indicates −13.23: the counterstroke 34...Nf1+ launched a decisive attack, executed cleanly by Assaubayeva to seal Armenia's 1–3 match defeat. Elsewhere, Mariam Mkrtchyan played 26.Re1 from a +7.38 advantage against Tihana Ivekovic (2169) in round 3, seeing her margin contract to +1.84 before winning. At the Brasov Grand Prix in July, Mariam held an equal position against Liu Bei (2175) when she played 32...Re8, taking the evaluation to −5.57 and leading to defeat.

Elina Danielian possesses the most precise endgame record in the entire fixture, averaging just 9 centipawns per move, yet dropped points in Samarkand. In round 1, she played 38.Kh2 against Liu Tian Yi of Hong Kong (1799), shifting the position from 0.00 to −6.53 before salvaging a draw. In round 5, holding +3.08 against Fiorella Contreras Huaman of Peru, she played 29...Kb8 (evaluated at −1.23) and drew once more. Susanna Gaboyan led with +7.40 against Leung Hoi Ting of Hong Kong in round 1 when 46...Rxc2+ levelled the position to 0.00, though she ultimately prevailed. Anahit Mkrtchyan, at the 2026 World Junior Championship, played 26...Nd6 from an equal position against Mumtozbegim Mansurova (1963), resulting in −6.70 and defeat.

Elevated figures do not always denote tactical errors, as tablebase verification resolves two such occurrences. At depth 16, Mariam Mkrtchyan's 52...Qf8 against Kannappan and 72.Rg4 against Zimina appear with severe evaluation drops. Tablebase analysis confirms that the former retains a forced win and the latter was already mathematically lost regardless of the move chosen. In both instances, shallow calculations misread resolved endgames. Uncapped blunder totals are consequently excluded from the table, confirming that Mariam's endgame average of 45 centipawns reflects these computational anomalies.

What the online accounts show, and what they do not

This section pursues a distinct analytical purpose from the preceding examination and is accordingly presented separately. Repertoires in rapid and blitz controls are broader and more experimental than in classical chess, since decisions executed under three minutes differ fundamentally from preparation designed for long tournament games. These records illustrate an athlete's practical familiarity with specific structures and highlight areas of discomfort, without providing dogmatic forecasts for the upcoming round.

The account classyel, verified on Chess.com with Elina Danielian's Grandmaster title, represents the clearest instance of dual repertoire. In classical tournaments, she meets 1.e4 with 1...d6 or the French Defence. Online, however, she chose 1...Nf6 in 72 of 85 games against 1.e4, with the Alekhine Defence emerging as her most vulnerable line: in 1.e4 Nf6 2.e5 Nd5 3.d4 d6 4.c4, she recorded only 10.7% in 14 games (one win, one draw, and 12 losses); against 3.c4, she scored 21.4% in 14. With White, after 1.d4 Nf6 2.Bg5 c5, she scored 14.3% in 7 games. Overall, she scores 48.0% with White and 45.4% with Black on the account. These data do not guarantee that she will play the Alekhine over the board; they demonstrate, however, that the variation has proven fragile in her recent practice.

Under the account mishanick, also verified with a Grandmaster title, Alexey Sarana played 300 games in the period: scoring 73.5% in 149 White games and 64.2% in 151 Black games. The only setup that diverges significantly from his standard performance is the Slav Defence (1.d4 d5 2.c4 c6), where he scored 53.8% in 13 games — a benchmark classified as high confidence. With Black, three variations level at 50.0% across 7 or 8 games (including the Sicilian with 3.Bb5+), representing secondary indicators.

Aleksandar Indjic has 104 games on the account beca95, scoring 54.5% in 11 White games after 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 — the same pawn structure that causes him difficulties when playing Black in classical chess. Velimir Ivic holds 65 games under drvelja, without distinct statistical anomalies. Bojan Maksimovic has 92 games under mbojan (85 blitz and 7 bullet), also without conclusive opening trends. Susanna Gaboyan contested 27 games and Lilit Mkrtchian just 3. Alexandr Predke and Mariam Mkrtchyan hold verified accounts but remained inactive during the window, while Anahit Mkrtchyan has no confirmed Chess.com profile.

What to watch in round 8

Strategic planning in the open match depends upon Serbia's confirmed board order, with the dossier offering clear guidance for all five players. With White, choosing 1.d4 against Indjic represents the most empirically substantiated route (13 games with high confidence). Against Predke, both opening moves present valid arguments: 1.e4 can challenge the French Defence (25.0% in 6 games) and 1.d4 can test 1...d5 (36.4% in 11 games). Against Sarana, 1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 3.d4 leads into the Open Sicilian, where his score drops to 44.4% in 9 games. When playing Black, Serbia score highly across virtually all setups, with the exceptions of Ivic (who falls to 57.7% in 26 games against 1...e5 2.Nf3 Nc6) and Predke (who drops to 44.1% in 17 games against 1...e5).

In the women's match, the tactical picture is sharper. Against Gaboyan, 1.e4 confronts a player scoring only 36.1% in 18 games against the move; against Anahit, any opening encounters her 42.1% Black record. Armenia's top three boards all score above 54% with both colours, where the dossier serves to identify preferred paths: with Black against Danielian, 1.d4 d5 2.c4 e6 leads to the line where her score declines to 54.2% in 12 games; against Mariam Mkrtchyan, 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 challenges her 50.0% return across 15 games. These findings are based on samples of 6 to 18 games — valuable parameters for pre-game preparation, without offering dogmatic guarantees.

When the round begins and the official PGN releases the confirmed line-ups, the dossier files connected to this article will automatically display the four boards and the live games. Until then, the assessment presented here covers both squads in full: ten players analysed, 964 games examined, and a Serbian team characterised by exceptional resilience in equal positions, but who have already let slip at least three winning positions in Samarkand.

Frequently asked questions

Update log

• 2026-09-23 — First published, with the round 8 pairings checked on chess-results and the round still to be played. The article covers the repertoire from 964 classical games broadcast on Lichess, the error profile with Stockfish 19 at depth 16 and the blitz and rapid repertoire of the verified accounts. The dossiers cover both opponents' full squads; when the line-up comes out, the same file will show the four boards and the round's game.
• 2026-09-29 — The Olympiad ended on 27 September: Uzbekistan won the open and China the women's event. This coverage is no longer updated; the final result is in the standings story.

Sources

• 46th Chess Olympiad Samarkand 2026, Open — round 8 pairings — Chess-Results
• 46th Chess Olympiad Samarkand 2026, Women — round 8 pairings — Chess-Results
• Lilit Mkrtchian v Bibisara Assaubayeva, round 4 — broadcast game — Lichess
• Shawn Rodrigue-Lemieux v Alexey Sarana, round 3 — broadcast game — Lichess
• Velimir Ivic v Edvin Trost, round 6 — broadcast game — Lichess
• Elina Danielian (classyel) — titled profile that verifies the account used for the online repertoire — Chess.com

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